Thursday, April 23, 2015

Is Population Growth a Strong Indicator of Home Prices? Pro Teck's Home Value Forecast Examines Population Growth Impact on Home Values

This month, Pro Teck Valuation Services' Home Value Forecast (HVF) update examines the top three markets in terms of population growth from 2000-2014 and looks at housing trends in these areas to see if home prices correspond with population changes. The Villages in Florida as well as Midland and Austin, Texas ranked the highest in terms of population growth percentage and also are benefiting from stronger housing markets.  The monthly top and bottom ten ranking of metro area also is updated. 
"Although metro areas may differ from each other in terms of economy, industry and generations, the higher population growth areas are at or near all-time highs in home prices and do not show much impact from the housing crisis," said Tom O'Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services.
The HVF authors examined a recent US Census analysis, which ranked 381 metropolitan statistical areas by their percent change in population from 2001-2014.  HVF then compared the top three areas of growth in terms of percent change against home price appreciation using Collateral Analytics Forecast.  Here is what the authors found:
  • The Villages in Florida is a rapidly growing retirement community.  The average age is 68.7 years, the oldest in the country and almost 30 years above the US average age of 36.8.  Home prices in The Villages are expected to rise over the next five years from $220,000 to nearly $300,000.
  • Midland, Texas' growth in the last four years can be directly linked to the energy business, with 13.6% of the population involved in the mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction businesses.  While falling energy prices might negatively impact growth, HVF authors see home prices as of now also rising from approximately $220,000 to $300,000.
  • Austin, the capital of Texas, was known first as a college city, then a technology manufacturing hub and finally today as a professional services hub.  Reflective of its college city roots, the average age in Austin is 31.1.  The HVF update shows a more modest growth in home prices over the next five years, but still a steady increase from $250,000 to closer to $300,000.
This month's Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model.  The rankings are run for the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis.  They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure percentage and REO activity.
"There are 7 California markets in the top ten this month.  Two of the California markets (San Francisco and San Rafael) had active sales prices of more than $1 million," said O'Grady.  "Denver was the most active market this month in terms of sales activity, andBellingham, WA continue to lead the top ten."
March's top CBSAs include:
Bellingham, WA    
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO   
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX   
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA   
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA   
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA   
San Rafael, CA        
Santa Rosa, CA    
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA       
Yuba, CA
"Foreclosure sales as a percentage of total sales is still driving the bottom ten for this month," added O'Grady.  "Even with higher sales activity, the markets still have a way to go before they see a full recovery as most of these markets continue to also have much higher months of remaining inventory."
The bottom CBSAs for March were:   
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield, FL   
Gary, IN    
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH   
Jacksonville, NC    
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI     
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL     
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL    
Saginaw, MI    
Scranton-Wilkes BarreHazleton, PA    
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA  
About Home Value Forecast
Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services.  HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

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