SEATTLE, April 25, 2013 -- The national housing market showed signs of moderation in the first quarter after months of robust and largely unsustainable annual home value appreciation. The Zillow® Home Value Index (ZHVI)[i] rose to$157,600 as of the end of the first quarter, up 5.1 percent year-over-year and 0.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the first quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports[ii].
In March, U.S. home values rose for the 16th consecutive month, though last month represented the second straight month of slowing annual appreciation. Underscoring this slowdown, home value appreciation in the first quarter was 0.5 percent compared to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Historically, housing markets can expect annual home value appreciation of roughly 3 percent, according to Zillow research. Looking ahead, the Zillow Home Value Forecast[iii] shows national home values increasing by 3.2 percent through March 2014, an annual appreciation rate more in line with historic norms.
But in some local markets, home values continue to rise at a breakneck pace. Five metros covered by Zillow experienced year-over-year appreciation of more than 20 percent: Phoenix (up 24 percent), Las Vegas (up 22.3 percent), San Jose (up 22.1 percent), San Francisco (up 21.4 percent) and Sacramento (up 20.1 percent).
"The national housing market has rebounded strongly over the past year. But the sometimes dramatic home value run-ups experienced during these months were never expected to be sustainable, and recent slowdowns are indicative of a market that is slowly finding its natural level," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "Looking forward, we expect annual home value appreciation to continue to slow, as more inventory comes up for sale. But pockets of very rapid appreciation will remain, a troubling sign of volatility and a potential future headache as affordability is compromised and homes begin to look much more expensive to average buyers. This affordability issue may become acute in many markets in a couple years once mortgage rates begin to return again to normal levels."
Further underscoring the unevenness of the recovery, seven of the top 30 metro markets covered by Zillow saw a decline in home values in the first quarter. The New York metro saw a decline of 0.3% in home values after three consecutive quarters of positive appreciation, the first quarterly decline in that metro since the first quarter of 2012. Chicago saw the greatest home value depreciation, with values falling 1.4% in the quarter after a flat fourth quarter of 2012.
Foreclosure rates rose in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, likely because of a seasonal acceleration after the traditionally slow holiday period. A total of 5.11 out of every 10,000 homes were foreclosed upon in the first quarter, down 1.3 homes per 10,000 from the fourth quarter, and down 2.4 homes per 10,000 year-over-year.
In the rental market, national rents rose 0.9 percent in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter, and were up 4.9 percent over the first quarter of 2012. The Zillow Rent Index (ZRI)[iv] stood at $1,290 at the end of March.
In March, U.S. home values rose for the 16th consecutive month, though last month represented the second straight month of slowing annual appreciation. Underscoring this slowdown, home value appreciation in the first quarter was 0.5 percent compared to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Historically, housing markets can expect annual home value appreciation of roughly 3 percent, according to Zillow research. Looking ahead, the Zillow Home Value Forecast[iii] shows national home values increasing by 3.2 percent through March 2014, an annual appreciation rate more in line with historic norms.
But in some local markets, home values continue to rise at a breakneck pace. Five metros covered by Zillow experienced year-over-year appreciation of more than 20 percent: Phoenix (up 24 percent), Las Vegas (up 22.3 percent), San Jose (up 22.1 percent), San Francisco (up 21.4 percent) and Sacramento (up 20.1 percent).
"The national housing market has rebounded strongly over the past year. But the sometimes dramatic home value run-ups experienced during these months were never expected to be sustainable, and recent slowdowns are indicative of a market that is slowly finding its natural level," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "Looking forward, we expect annual home value appreciation to continue to slow, as more inventory comes up for sale. But pockets of very rapid appreciation will remain, a troubling sign of volatility and a potential future headache as affordability is compromised and homes begin to look much more expensive to average buyers. This affordability issue may become acute in many markets in a couple years once mortgage rates begin to return again to normal levels."
Further underscoring the unevenness of the recovery, seven of the top 30 metro markets covered by Zillow saw a decline in home values in the first quarter. The New York metro saw a decline of 0.3% in home values after three consecutive quarters of positive appreciation, the first quarterly decline in that metro since the first quarter of 2012. Chicago saw the greatest home value depreciation, with values falling 1.4% in the quarter after a flat fourth quarter of 2012.
Foreclosure rates rose in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, likely because of a seasonal acceleration after the traditionally slow holiday period. A total of 5.11 out of every 10,000 homes were foreclosed upon in the first quarter, down 1.3 homes per 10,000 from the fourth quarter, and down 2.4 homes per 10,000 year-over-year.
In the rental market, national rents rose 0.9 percent in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter, and were up 4.9 percent over the first quarter of 2012. The Zillow Rent Index (ZRI)[iv] stood at $1,290 at the end of March.
| Metropolitan Areas | Zillow Home Value Index | Zillow Home Value Forecast | |||
| Q1 2013 | Q-Over-Q Change | Yr-Over-Yr Change | Bottom in Home Values | Change in ZHVI, Q1 2013- Q1 2014 | |
| United States | $157,600 | 0.5% | 5.1% | 2011 Q4 | 3.2 |
| New York | $343,700 | -0.3% | 1.2% | No Bottom | -1.2 |
| Los Angeles | $439,400 | 5.5% | 14.9% | 2012 Q1 | 11.1 |
| Chicago | $159,800 | -1.4% | -0.2% | 2013 Q3 | -1.5 |
| Dallas-Ft. Worth, Texas | $132,700 | 1.2% | 5.7% | 2011 Q4 | 3.5 |
| Philadelphia | $186,900 | -0.6% | 0.3% | 2013 Q3 | 0.2 |
| Washington DC | $328,400 | 1.2% | 6.6% | 2011 Q1 | 1.2 |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla. | $159,000 | 4.1% | 12.1% | 2011 Q4 | 4.9 |
| Atlanta | $117,000 | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2012 Q3 | 1.7 |
| Boston | $321,700 | 0.8% | 4.9% | 2011 Q4 | 0.7 |
| San Francisco | $563,200 | 6.4% | 21.4% | 2012 Q1 | 10.5 |
| Detroit | $84,700 | 4.1% | 13.1% | 2011 Q3 | 4.4 |
| Riverside, Calif. | $210,100 | 6.0% | 16.3% | 2012 Q1 | 17.2 |
| Phoenix | $165,600 | 4.7% | 24.0% | 2011 Q3 | 10.6 |
| Seattle | $280,100 | 3.5% | 10.1% | 2012 Q1 | 7.8 |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn. | $180,500 | 3.1% | 10.6% | 2012 Q1 | 3.6 |
| San Diego | $396,800 | 5.5% | 17.1% | 2012 Q1 | 8.8 |
| St. Louis | $126,200 | -1.2% | 1.0% | 2011 Q4 | -0.3 |
| Tampa, Fla. | $117,600 | 3.4% | 9.9% | 2011 Q4 | 3.7 |
| Baltimore | $222,200 | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2012 Q1 | 0.2 |
| Denver | $234,200 | 2.5% | 13.1% | 2011 Q2 | 3.1 |
| Pittsburgh | $111,700 | -0.2% | 2.1% | 2008 Q4 | 0.9 |
| Portland, Ore. | $237,100 | 2.8% | 10.4% | 2012 Q1 | 4.0 |
| Sacramento, Calif. | $241,600 | 7.1% | 20.1% | 2012 Q1 | 15.6 |
| Orlando, Fla. | $130,800 | 3.8% | 10.8% | 2012 Q1 | 5.3 |
| Cincinnati, Oh | $122,100 | -0.3% | 0.0% | 2013 Q2 | 1.1 |
| Cleveland | $110,900 | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2012 Q1 | 0.9 |
| Las Vegas | $138,800 | 7.1% | 22.3% | 2012 Q1 | 7.5 |
| San Jose | $676,100 | 6.8% | 22.1% | 2009 Q2 | 9.7 |
| Columbus | $127,500 | 0.6% | 3.4% | 2012 Q1 | 1.3 |
| Charlotte | $136,800 | -0.7% | 2.0% | 2011 Q2 | -0.6 |
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