WALTHAM, Mass., Dec. 30, 2013 -- Pro Teck Valuation Services' December Home Value Forecast (HVF) update looks back at the housing indicators over the last twelve months in a number of residential real estate categories. These include current sales price, twelve-month active list price appreciation, current months of remaining inventory (MRI) and twelve-month sales appreciation. This month's update examines the top and bottom three markets for these indicators over the past year.
As part of its December update, Home Value Forecast reported that the top three markets with twelve-month active list appreciation were Stockton and Modesto, CA and Reno-Sparks, NV.
"Active price is the median price a home is listing for a moment in time. It's a good reflection of the health of a market because it takes into account market fundamentals as well as people's perceptions as to where prices are headed," said Tom O'Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services.
MRI is another indicator that shows how "hot" a market is at a particular time. MRI equals the amount of households on the market divided by the number that sell per month. If an area has a high MRI (10 months), it means that the market is saturated — a buyer's market. If the MRI is low (2–3 months) then it becomes a seller's market. As of today, many parts of Washington State and California are seeing some of the nation's lowest levels of inventory.
This month's Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis. They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.
"The western United States is well represented again, with seven metros from California, as well as Oregon and Washington, in our top 10," added O'Grady. "Foreclosure as a percentage of sales is a very important indicator at Home Value Forecast — as you can see, none of our top 10 metros have more than 10 percent of sales from foreclosure, and most of have seen a 50+ percent reduction in the number. Also, housing stock as represented by MRI is between 2 and 5 months, indicating a hot market."
December's top CBSAs include:
Merced, CABend-Redmond, ORLos Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CASan Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CAAnn Arbor, MIGrand Rapids-Wyoming, MINassau County-Suffolk County, NYAnaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CABellingham, WAOxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
"A new entrant to our bottom 10 is Pueblo, CO. Pueblo was hit hard by flooding in September, and it's showing in the market.Grand Junction, CO also was ranked as a "weak" market, but did not appear in our bottom 10. In all, more than 18,000 homes were damaged and 2,000 destroyed by the flooding in Colorado. We will be watching to see if the effects are seen in other metro markets," added O'Grady. "Separately, as we reported before, when foreclosures represent a significant share of total sales and their discounted prices pull down the prices of non-distressed sales, it is known as the 'contagion effect.' This is continuing to be a factor in our bottom 10 metros this month."
The bottom CBSAs for December were:
Pueblo, CODaytona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FLMiami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FLLakeland-Winter Haven, FLPort St. Lucie, FLPalm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FLPensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FLPunta Gorda, FLDetroit-Dearborn-Livonia, FLJacksonville, FL
About Home Value Forecast
Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.
To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck's full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.
Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry tomediarequest@protk.com.
Editor's Note:
A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) is a U.S. geographic area defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) based around an urban center of at least 10,000 people and adjacent areas that are socioeconomically tied to the urban center by commuting. The term "CBSA" refers collectively to both Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and micropolitan areas. Micropolitan areas are based around Census Bureau-defined urban clusters of at least 10,000 and fewer than 50,000 people. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are defined as urban clusters of more than 50,000 people.
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